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Baseball 2005

 
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Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2005 10:15 pm    Post subject: Baseball 2005 Reply with quote

Since the season is practically upon us, I might as well put down my predictions, such as they are.

Playoff Teams

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Padres
NL Wild Card: Marlins

The AL might be unanimous by everyone, with maybe the Yanks and Red Sox switching places. The NL is a lot harder to handicap. The Cards still have a killer lineup and an ace now in Mulder. The Braves just win. I like the Padres only because I like them more than the Dodgers and the Giants. And the Marlins just seem to be the best of the rest, although I would love it if the Mets can be in it all year.

World Series: Yankees over Braves

Much as it will pain Yankee haters to hear this, the Big Unit does make a big difference.

Awards

Manager: Bruce Bochy (NL), Eric Wedge (AL)
Rookie: Clint Barmes (NL), Tadahito Iguchi (AL)
MVP: Scott Rolen (NL), David Ortiz (AL)
Cy Young: Tim Hudson (NL), Randy Johnson (AL)

If San Diego wins the division, Bochy will win unless a complete surprise team is in the wild card hunt. Cleveland will give Minnesota a run, meaning Wedge gets his due. Rookie is a crapshoot, and Barmes is a fun name (and yes, it is with an "m"). No real shocks anywhere.

Miscellaneous

First Manager Fired: Lloyd McClendon, Pirates
Number of HRs for Barry Bonds (assuming he plays at all): 25
Number of more wins for Yankees over Mets (if that makes sense): 20
Number of Players Suspended for Steroids: 2 (they want to nail someone)
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Dean



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Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm, yeah, I guess you gotta pick the Padres now, huh? I can't consider the Giants in it any more (many will, but I think they underestimate how much Bonds carried the team), and the Dodgers look like crap on paper. I hate to say it, but it looks like DePodesta is making a mess of that team.

I am gonna pick the Phillies in the East. I think it is one of those situations where just when everyone gives up on them, they fulfill their potential. I know the Braves have won consistently, but that doesn't mean they will do it no matter who they put out there. Who is going to do what J.D. Drew did last year for them? For them to win, I think Andruw Jones would have to be a serious MVP candidate and Smoltz will have to be a Cy Young candidate. Possible, but unlikely.

Have to agree with Cards and Marlins. The Astros took a beating this offseason, losing Beltran and Kent forever and Berkman for a good part of the season. And the Cubs offense is pretty weak, although I do like them more than the Astros, and if Maddux is a Cy candidate and their top four pitchers all stay healthy, then they'd almost have to at least win a wild card. Mets are not quite there yet; I think they'll win around 81. I think your 20-win discrepancy with the Yanks is a little bit too high.

In the AL, Yanks and Boston both in the playoffs obviously, but I think I like Boston to win the division. A full season of good play from SS and RF will be very big for them, and Wade Miller could really put them over the top. In the Central, I agree that the Indians will make a run, and the Twins will probably win. The West... blech. I guess I'll pick the Angels. I am not too impressed by their team, but I guess it's the best in the division. I would not be surprised if the A's edged them out, but Oakland is probably aiming more for '06.

I'll be boring and pick a replay of last year's World Series, with the same result. Well, the Cards might win a game or two this time.

Your Manager picks sound good. For MVP, I'll take Pujols and A-Rod. For Cy, I'll take Unit and Pedro (wishful thinking? maybe). And for Rookie, I'll take Brandon McCarthy in the AL and... damn, there aren't many good rookies in the NL, huh? Barmes sounds fine.
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Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Giants without Bonds are a hundred-loss team, seriously. That is some stinky stinky over there. I actually haven't given up on DePodesta yet, and I think the Dodgers could be very good, could win the division. But I hope the Padres win, just because they have Jeff Spicoli playing shortstop.

Boringly enough I think I actually agree with Dean on the rest of the standings, though. I too will not let the past failure of the Braves to fall apart get in the way of my predicting they will do so. Angels with maybe the A's if their new pitching comes through and Chavez is a monster. And yes, I think the Red Sox will win the division this year. The Yankees added the Unit, but they also lost Leiber and Hernandez and Vazquez (who was very good for a half year) and replaced them with Pavano and Wright, both of whom I expect very little from. Last year the Yanks outperformed their Pythagorean projection by something ridiculous like 12 games, and I think most of the credit has to go to Rivera and Gordon being incredible; I don't expect Flash in particular to be anywhere near that consistent again.

Have you guys fully warmed to Pedro already? I hear people are trying to put an asterisk next to his 2004 stats because he pitched the whole season under the influence of hair gel. Wink
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Stu



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Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oliver wrote:
Have you guys fully warmed to Pedro already? I hear people are trying to put an asterisk next to his 2004 stats because he pitched the whole season under the influence of hair gel. Wink

As long as it's not coconut hair gel worn by Darren Oliver, who caused the bee-game hilarity in Tucson.

I may (emphasis on may) have tickets to Pedro's first Shea start... raring to go to that. I'll start to warm to him then and only then.

Also waiting for Bernie to get a Pedro doll as a Met so Pedro can continue to frustrate Preston.
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Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should really try to make it up to Shea sometime this spring or summer. I'm intending to spend more time in the City this year, now that I've turned thirty-old and am confronted daily with signs of my mortality... Confused
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Stu



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Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Initial thoughts about Pedro: damn good.

Initial thoughts about bullpen: damn implosive. Makes Abe and Preston look non-threatening by comparison.
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Dean



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Joined: 25 Oct 2004
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There really isn't much that can be done about it. You have to be careful when trading for relievers. Teams usually want a LOT for them, and they're very inconsistent from year to year. I think the mix and match strategy the Mets are using is probably the most prudent strategy. It can be painful to watch, though. I hope Bell and Fortunato get up here pretty quick. Liked what we got out of Koo.
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bernieh
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Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Posts: 947

PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Random thoughts

Ichiro's linescores for his first 6 games:
2-for-4
2-for-4
2-for-4
2-for-3
2-for-4
1-for-4

... = .478 BA, good for 1st in the AL. This guy's a MACHINE. He hit .372 last year (and wasn't that including a prolonged early slump??). He had an incredible spring. And he's tearin it up right outta the gates this season. You gotta believe he has a halfway decent shot at .400 with this kind of consistency.

Pedro with a complete game 2-hitter? Incredible news for Mets fans.

John Smoltz striking out 15 in 7.2 IP in his second game back as a starter? Bad news for the NL.

The Marlins have a 31-9 run differential, and they're 3-3. Ooof.
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Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, baseball already has caught up with my predicted number of people caught for steroids. Maybe I should have said 20 as well.
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Guest







PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't sleep on the Brewers Smile We just added some power to our lineup and actually have bats to go with our pitching now.

But like last season, I bet we will start off strong, collapse just before the allstar break, then slowly die as teams walk all over us.

But at least there is good beer at a Brewers game.
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Dean



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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another Brewer fan?? Wow, weird.

Pedro has been very impressive so far.

I'm of two minds about the Smoltz thing. As I said earlier, they probably need him to be a starter and to pitch very well if they're gonna win -- no one besides Hudson in that rotation is very reliable -- so in that sense, their hand was forced. Still, you hate to see a guy get hurt, which I think is likely to happen. And if an injury basically finishes his career, that'll probably be the difference in his HOF chances -- he is right on the borderline.

A couple of days ago, the Mets had a 1-5 record, but had a better OPS on offense than defense, 809 to 756. (Another strange number: On Saturday morning, everyone in the AL had a 2-2 record.)

Pat Burrell is hitting the entire league as if every team is the Mets.

I don't think Ichiro can hit .400, but he did in one of my Strat-O-Matic replays (playing in Shea rather than Safeco) so maybe it can happen.
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ConnMan8D



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Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 28
Location: Qo'noS

PostPosted: Thu May 05, 2005 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gotta post this one... it's obligatory.

Go Cards!
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