Alien Loves Predator Forum Index
         
FAQFAQ    SearchSearch    RegisterRegister    ProfileProfile    Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages    Log inLog in 
Baseball Hall of Fame

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Alien Loves Predator Forum Index -> Sports
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:53 am    Post subject: Baseball Hall of Fame Reply with quote

Since I know Dean can go on ad nauseum talking about this (as can I), I'll start this thread.

I haven't had a chance to peruse the ballot yet, but I will within a few days. I think the one thing I am really curious about is how much support Darryl Strawberry will get. I don't believe he'll be a HOFer, but will he get the required 5% to stay on the ballot next year?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dean



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it'll be close on that, Stu. On one hand, he has the "fame"... but on the other hand, much of it for negative reasons. He is ultimately not deserving just based on his playing career, as I'm sure we all agree. Which is really a damn shame, since it didn't have to be that way.

Here's the ballot. I am a big fan of longevity; my basic criteria for a position player is that they be among the top 2-3 in the league at their position for many years. My ballot would be:

Wade Boggs - As it says, a shoo-in.
Goose Gossage - Can't see how he is worse than his contemporary Rollie Fingers; incredible longevity, and way more innings than current relievers, with similarly dominating performance.
Ryne Sandberg - Surely one of the top 10 second basemen of all time; he needs to be in.
Lee Smith - I can see the argument against him, but he had so many good years, was always pitching in hitter's parks, and after all is the all-time saves leader.
Bruce Sutter - Again, I see the argument against him (short career), but in this case, I think he was good enough to go against my usual preference for longevity. Would Mariano Rivera be deserving if he retired right now? I think so, and I think Sutter is at that level of dominance (except Sutter pitched many more innings.)
Alan Trammell - Only the one big year, but sooo very consistent. Could easily have been the best SS in the AL for 15 years, if not for Ripken. I think he belongs, though he has about as much chance as Morganna the Kissing Bandit.

I think Boggs and Sandberg will get in. Next year, with no clear candidate at all, it will be very interesting to see if anyone (the relievers? Rice? Dawson? Blyleven?) can rise to the top. Many statheads like Blyleven, but I am not convinced that he is particularly better than guys like John and Kaat who fall just short. And I think Rice didn't have enough monster hitting years to override his negatives in pretty much every other category (grounded into massive DPs, benefited a lot from Fenway, career trailed off quickly, kind of a jerk.) Dawson's OBP was around .320, and that just does not cut it.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might be helpful to see who we're talking about:

The complete ballot (x-first time eligible): x-Jim Abbott, Bert Blyleven, x-Wade Boggs, x-Tom Candiotti, Dave Concepcion, x-Chili Davis, Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, x-Mark Langston, Don Mattingly, x-Jack McDowell, x-Willie McGee, x-Jeff Montgomery, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, x-Otis Nixon, Dave Parker, x-Tony Phillips, Jim Rice, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, x-Terry Steinbach, x-Darryl Strawberry, Bruce Sutter, Alan Trammell.

I pretty much agree with Dean here, though I am more strongly pro-Blyleven. Lee Smith I feel somehow iffy about, but closers are hugely underrepresented so far, and I think Gossage and Sutter definitely need to be in so probably Smith should go too. And yes, someday Rivera.

I'm a rare thing, a Red Sox fan who's not pro-Rice. I would have voted for Dewey before him, and Evans isn't even on the ballot anymore. Rice had the opposite of longevity - a pretty nifty peak but then he just crashed to earth. But nonetheless, among Sox fans there's a huge (and I think pretty irrational) level of support for him. (I don't mean there is no rational argument for including him; I just mean most Sox fans don't bother with one.) Is there similar sentiment for Donnie Baseball in NYC?

One thing I find fascinating is to read old books and see what the general sentiment for induction of players playing at the time was, and how different things have become since then. I think Dale Murphy, Sandberg and Trammell were all regarded at one time or another as shoo-ins. In fact, it was believed if I recall correctly that Trammell and his DP partner Lou Whitaker would probably go in together if they retired at the same time; Whitaker didn't even make the 5% to stay on the ballot. Murphy obviously suffered from a late-career collapse, and the rest from comparison to the power-hitting middle infielders of the 90s and the present. Sandberg will get in though.

As for Straw... who knows. Gooden is on the ballot next year, too. I somehow think everybody would like it if Straw got a couple votes, but I don't know if any individual voters are going to be the ones to do it. One wishes there had been a different ending for those guys.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Yogi




Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Posts: 13
Location: new york, ny

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darryl doesn't stay on the ballot. He only had 2 or 3 really great years, and then a handful of good ones, and then a legendary flameout. The crackhead didn't even hit 350 HRs. Jay Buhner is the #1 Similar Batter on his baseball-reference.com page.

The greatest thing he ever did was clock Armando Benitez on the side of the head in that Baltimore brawl.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, now that I see the ballot, I can make some comments.

Boggs is a shoo-in.
Blyleven keeps getting close. This is actually not a strong year, so his chances (and Sandberg's and Trammell's (to a lesser extent)) are good.
I'd go Sutter and Gossage for relievers.

And that's it. Those six.

I think Straw gets just over 5%, but next year goes under that mark with a much stronger ballot. This also makes it important that the pitchers and Trammell (and maybe Ryno) get in NOW. The ballot will be strong for a couple of years, so it's now or never for Blyleven (I think he has over 10 years already on the ballot).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice segue to future ballots, Stu:

2006: Rick Aguilera, Tim Belcher, Will Clark, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Dwight Gooden, Ozzie Guillen, Juan Guzman, Orel Hershiser, Gregg Jefferies, Lance Johnson, Doug Jones, Roberto Kelly, Mickey Morandini, Hal Morris, Jaime Navarro, Luis Polonia, Mike Stanley, Walt Weiss, John Wetteland, Mark Whiten

2007: Harold Baines, Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Gwynn, Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Mark McGwire, Paul O’Neill, Gregg Olson, Cal Ripken Jr., Bret Saberhagen, Jeff Shaw, Kevin Tapani, Devon White, Bobby Witt

2008: Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Mike Morgan, Tim Raines, Randy Velarde

2009: Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Matt Williams

2010: Edgar Martinez, Robin Ventura

Next year (2006 induction) is very weak (Gregg Jefferies!) so those trying to sneak in have next year as well. Then 2007 you've got Gwynn-McGwire-Ripken. The year after that we'll get to complain about how Rock Raines wasn't elected. Then the year after that is Rickey - assuming he doesn't play somewhere in the meantime! And you can put me solidly in the Edgar-for-the-Hall camp.

There actually don't look like too many borderline cases. We'll probably hear some arguments for Clark, Canseco, maybe O'Neill or Justice. Any opinions?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dean



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of those? I think Gwynn, McGwire, Ripken, Rickey will make it... and that's it.

Actually, there are not many guys about to fall off the ballot due to total time served. This is year 12 for Sutter; 11 for Rice and Tommy John; 8 for Blyleven. So everyone can at least make it to '08, a weak year, and most can also enjoy the couple of weak years beyond that.

The problem is that the HOF missed some guys earlier -- Quisenberry got shafted, Trammell is never gonna make it, and guys like Whitaker and Dwight Evans who are at least worthy candidates (and I think Whitaker should be in) fell off the ballot alotgether. So that, combined with the weak incoming crops, makes these ballots really bare. I hope they don't end up electing people for lack of alternatives.

Totally agreed on Raines; he is on course to be the best player NOT in the Hall. That pathetic '08 class is the best break he can get, and it still in all probability won't be enough. Hope I'm wrong. He is VERY deserving.

Edgar falls a little short of my own HOF. If he were a 3B, you'd have to put him in. But as a DH, he should have to put up a more historic statline, and I think he fell about two good seasons short of that. I don't think he has much chance at all to make the real one. They'll ignore OBP, and kill him for being a DH. Then you've got guys whose names we all know, but who IMO are not particularly close... Hershiser, W. Clark, O'Neill, Justice, Canseco, Grace, M. Williams, Ventura... all extremely deserving of the Hall of Very Good, but if they get serious HOF support, I'll be surprised and disappointed.

The interesting controversy to me will be Baines. 2,866 hits, and 23rd all-time in RBI. I don't think he is going to make it, but that is going to be the most interesting argument, because that precedent is going to have a big effect. By the time the '90s stars retire, there will be PLENTY of guys with tons of RBI and 2,800+ hits, due to the offensive explosion in that decade. If Baines goes in, all those players' candidacies -- even the ones who weren't that "dominant" -- look a lot better.

Oliver: There are a small number of vocal Mattingly acolytes here, but it's not gonna be like Rizzuto where we successfully whine the guy in there. You can make arguments for Don, assuming you've already decided beforehand that you want him in. You can compare him to Kirby Puckett. You can do the "hey, he was dominant for a few years, just like Sandy Koufax" thing. But, I think most people realize that those arguments fall down under any level of scrutiny. The guy got hurt; it happens. At least he's likely going to manage the Yankees, that's another good way to get in...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dean



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And btw, here's a news flash:
Quote:
Darryl Strawberry acknowledges that years of substance abuse derailed his playing career - and his chances of getting into the Hall of Fame.

"Looking back, it probably affected my numbers," Strawberry said...

NO WAY!!!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's Boggs and Sandberg, the former a landslide and the latter a squeaker. And Strawberry falls off the ballot.

The big jump was Gossage, who went from 40% to 55%. Sutter climbed by five percent to 67% and things are looking promising for him. Rice (60%) and Blyleven (41%) also went up 5%.

Rice of course has been up and down in the past, so I really don't know if his increase means anything. Who are these voters? I can understand changing your mind to think that someone is a Hall of Famer after all, but how does a guy go up then down then up? The answer I suppose is that when there's a strong class they leave off the people they feel more iffy about, but I don't need to point out how little that makes sense. If a guy's a Hall of Famer one year, he's a Hall of Famer every year. That's what it means.

With next year's weak class all of these guys can hope to be elected, though Blyleven still needs a big public-relations push. Since so many statheads have adopted him as a cause, it's possible; but hardening the opinion of the analysis-phobic is as likely an outcome as changing their minds.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dean



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2005 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly can't complain about Boggs and Sandberg. I wonder why Sutter does better than Gossage. I really don't get that. But in any event, presumably Sutter and Rice go in next year. The only one of those I object to is Rice. I mean, he was a good player, but his Triple Crown stats are borderline, and he's a negative elsewhere (indifferent fielder, DHed a lot, took advantage of a hitter's park, grounded into tons of DPs, not a great OBP)... I just don't think he makes it across the line.

I guess I can sort of justify how people will vote for a guy one year and not the next. The HOF probably can't realistically induct 8 or 10 guys in the same year; the ceremony would take three days, plus it would be viewed as a joke and the perception would hurt the institution. If you believe that you should submit the ballot that you would want every other person to submit (Kant's categorical imperative -- contact Mr. Kagan for details), then I guess you try to keep your vote to a "realistic" number of guys. I think there's actually a lot to be said for the categorical imperative in many situations (hell, how else could you ever justify voting for a third party in politics?). But, probably not when 1) with the 75% requirement, it's damn hard to get one person elected, much less eight, and 2) there's only 500 people voting, so your one omission could plausibly be the one that keeps a deserving guy out.

Of course, it's also possible that votes change because a voter did further research and changed their mind. I'd imagine this is what's happening to Blyleven, who as you said has become a stathead cause celebre; kinda doubt it with guys like Rice.


Last edited by Dean on Tue Jan 04, 2005 11:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sutter does better for "mastering" the split finger. Which is total BS. Look at the whole stats, not what he did to invent or master a pitch. Candy Cummings is in the HOF as a pioneer/executive, not as a pitcher (in case anyone doesn't know, he "invented" the curveball).

Blyleven won't make it through BBWAA. No way he goes up 34% in the next couple of years of eligibility left he has.

Might as well watch Rice, Sutter and Gossage next year.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Treach



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 22 Dec 2004
Posts: 77

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 4:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stu wrote:
Blyleven won't make it through BBWAA.


What's the matter Stu, got a little case of Tourette's?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's an acronym, of course - it stands for "Bert Blyleven Will Always Await."
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, I meant Baseball Writer's Association of America, but used the acronym instead. I'm only mostly human.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
bernieh
Site Admin


Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Posts: 947

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha, that's funny. I want what Stu has too.

I don't think BBWAA a guy's qualifications for the Hall should BBWAAAA exclude non-statistical contributions to the sport. BBWAAAAA Sutter's legacy is anything but trivial - popularizing the split-BWWWAAAfinger and defining the closer role is pretty significant BBWWAAAAAAA in my book.

Here's BBWWWWWWWAAAAAAAA a question.
If Ichiro (lifetime .339/.384/.443) can keep this up for about as long as Boggs did (.328/.415/.443)... who's the better player?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Oliver




Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Princeton, NJ

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I want what Stu has too.


Oh, man. Don't we all.

Quote:
If Ichiro (lifetime .339/.384/.443) can keep this up for about as long as Boggs did (.328/.415/.443)... who's the better player?


Well, this is Ichiro's peak we're seeing; Wade's stats include his decline years. So probably Ichiro lifetime will fall a bit. Also, it's hard to compare a guy who won't have had a full major league career - even if Ichiro plays nine seasons, Wade will have played fifteen or so.

It might be interesting to compare peaks, but I'm too lazy to drag out Boggs's best years. Still, since that misses his decline he should have been better. Ichiro plays in a hitter's era in a pitcher's park, Boggs played in a hitter's park... suspect you're going to find Boggs at his peak was still the better hitter.

Of course, Ichiro plays great defense. So I think your point is good - at their peaks, they're comparable leadoff guys, both of whom supposedly deliberately gave up hitting for power to keep getting on base.


Last edited by Oliver on Wed Jan 05, 2005 5:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dean



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 147

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
suspect you're going to find Boggs at his peak was still the better hitter.

Yeah. Wade, and Ichiro. A good stat to look at here is OPS+; that is OPS adjusted for the league average and the stadium. 100 is average. From '83-'91, Boggs was: 150, 125, 151, 157, 173, 168, 143, 121, 140. That is a tremendous run. Ichiro's 135 last year, on the other hand, was his highest ever. And also consider that using OPS, since the stat underrates OBP, hurts Boggs in this comparison.

It's a huge hitting difference, one that even Ichiro's much better baserunning and defense couldn't hope to make up. This is no offense to Ichiro, at all. It's just that Boggs really is a no-brainer, first-ballot Hall of Famer, all-time great.

Re: Sutter: I don't really care who invented the split-finger, and if he really is responsible for defining the closer role, he should get smacked in the face. But based on his pitching, he should be in. Not before Gossage, IMO... but I don't care who gets in when, as long as they both do get in, which I think is likely.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Stu



Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 264
Location: Forest Hills, NY

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want what I have too. Too bad I have no clue what it is.

Funny that his high point was 1987, the year of the "juiced" ball. That's the year of his 24 homers.

You also need 10 years to qualify for HOF. Don't know how Ichiro's stats in Japanese baseball quantifies (or even qualifies).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
bernieh
Site Admin


Gender: Gender:Male
Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Posts: 947

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just saw this link on ESPN's baseball page.



Umm... no thanks. * shudder *
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Alien Loves Predator Forum Index -> Sports All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group